This week brings key inflation releases on Wednesday across three major regions. In South Africa, CPI YoY is expected to rise by 0.3% to 3.7%. The United Kingdom, in contrast, is forecast to see a 0.3% decline to 3.5%, while the Eurozone is expected to hold steady at 2.1%. With the US government shutdown ending last week, a wave of delayed data releases is expected. Economists have cautioned that the shutdown has compromised the quality of October’s figures and may leave a gap in parts of the dataset. For those tracking US policy signals, the FOMC minutes will also be released on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the SARB will announce its rate decision, with the market expecting a 25 bps cut to 6.75%. The move comes after a series of positive developments over the past month, including South Africa’s removal from the grey list, a positive MTBPS, and a credit rating upgrade from S&P to BB.
